Request for Information (RFI) 2 SMEs in Geopolitical Analysis

Performance Based Statement of Work Mission Engineering Support Integrated Deterrence, Navy Future Fleet Design, and Contested Logistics Using Quantified Geopolitical Analysis Naval Postgraduate School Background/Introduction: This statement of work intends to provide up to two (2) Subject Matter Experts (SME) in geopolitical analysis to support an integrated deterrence strategy under the guidance of the US Operational Navy (OPNAV) N7 for Force Design and the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy (DASN), Operational Energy. The deterrence strategy primarily includes military deterrence options and Functional Economic Deterrent Options (FEDO) but also considers and multiple elements of national power. The scope of FEDOs include energy related initiatives which has brought attention to the vulnerabilities of US, allies and partners in a protracted conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Contested logistics is a critical issue that the team is examining by creating operational logistics (OPLOG) initiatives that mitigate the vulnerabilities, thereby signaling to China that US, allies, and partners can win in a protracted conflict. The study specifically requires expertise in geopolitics in the China-Taiwan issue and the surrounding countries. Broad knowledge about the economics, social dynamics and culture of the countries is sought. Analysis may take various forms, such as Delphic methods, wargame analysis, campaign analysis, as well as output analysis of computer simulations. Interpretation of the data requires in-depth knowledge of regional conflicts, the state actors, leaders, and the population of the affected countries. Period of Performance will be 1 year upon Award, with two options. Scope: The scope of the subject matter is partitioned into 1) the development of value models that are associated with military and economic deterrent option, along with the reasoning and geopolitical foundations for the level of deterrence that may be expected if an option is revealed to an aggressor, 2) provide geopolitical analysis on the results of wargames, campaign analysis, simulation experiments and exercises, as well as qualitative assessments of conditions in the China-Taiwan scenario, 3) provide technical advice to the research and project leads regarding the China-Taiwan issues, as well as capture the processes and decision calculus of China’s leadership, and 4) serve as the co-principal investigator and primary advisor to the Principal Investigator for the associated research projects. The scope of work includes travel and support to the broader analysis team at events in the United States Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) Theater, Washington DC, and where academic and research institutes that can support this effort may be located. Tasks: The contractor shall perform the following task(s) as follows: Prepare for the analysis by completing the following preparation phase tasks: Review the results of computer simulation outcomes in a China-Taiwan scenario, wargame results of the FEDO development workshop, and analysis of operational logistics initiatives. Attend a bi-weekly meeting with the FEDO analysis team to become familiar with the event trace output format (the primary visual aid used for reasoning about FEDO behaviors), analysis execution, and expectations. Recommend specific and sequence of FEDOs, as well as operational logistics initiatives that may result in increasing the likelihood of deterring China from acting to seize and control Taiwan. Serve as the co-Principal Investigator and primary technical advisor to the Principal Investigator for Future Fleet design, Contested Logistics, and Operational Logistics Initiatives Studies: Attend regular meetings with faculty, researchers and students to provide guidance in their research methodologies in person or remotely depending on the location and circumstance utilizing in person communication, phone, or teams or other video teleconferencing software/technology when in person meetings are not an available option. Support presentations to leadership at different organizations. Assess the content and quality of products that are revealed and/or deployed in an exercise, game, or campaign. Apply value-focused thinking to create models that relate People’s Republic of China’s critical decision variables with its desire to behave contrary to US wishes. Tasks include: Identify quantitative variables critical to PRC’s decision-making. Provide analysis and evidentiary support for the credibility of the variables. Create a relational function or model for the variables with PRC operational commanders’ projected actions and outcomes and the PRC’s level of desire to behave contrary to US wishes. Validate the models through independent and analytic means, including but not limited to consultation with research institutes and inter-agencies, and use of historical data and other models. Apply the value models to military outcomes and to results of economic deterrent options. Use value models to aggregate the impact on the level of deterrence. Travel will be required to complete all tasks to support broader analysis team at events in the INDOPACOM Theater, Washington DC, and where academic and research institutes that can support this effort may be located. Deliverables: The contractor shall be responsible for providing the following deliverables: A validation review and analysis of FEDO. Incorporate analysis of the effects of certain military postures that support the FEDOs. A validation review and analysis of OPLOG initiatives in a contested logistics scenario. Incorporate analysis of the effects of certain military postures that support the OPLOG initiatives. A recommended selection (with rationale) of FEDOs and the sequence that they are revealed or deployed such that they have the greatest chance to deter China’s decision to seize and control Taiwan. A report on how the PRC decision variables apply to milit…