D--Land Use Modeling

Page 1 of 4 Statement of Work Introduction Understanding the eƯects of land use and land cover (LULC) change and ecosystem disturbances on wildfire vulnerability and fuel loading is a critical requirement for national safety and resource management. Modeling how changes in vegetation and land management influence fire behavior is a priority goal identified for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. The USGS has previously developed methodologies to quantify past and current LULC change and project future scenarios, linking these data with ecological models to estimate how "fuels"—represented by biomass and carbon stocks—accumulate and interact with natural disturbances over space and time. While initial assessments provided a foundation for understanding landscape change, significant technical gaps remain regarding the integrated linkage between LULC dynamics and wildfire risk. Specifically, there is a need for an integrated, easy-to-use, open-source model that emphasizes the spatial and temporal variability of fuel loads and the resulting fire consequences. Through a collaboration between a contractor and USGS, a proof-of- concept model was developed: the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS). Built upon the SyncroSim/ST-Sim state-and-transition simulation modeling framework, this tool was designed to produce reliable estimates of changes in LULC and the associated biomass (carbon) stocks that serve as primary fire fuels. The next phase of this eƯort involves refining the model to better simulate fire regimes, fuel transitions, and the impact of various land-management strategies on fire risk. This includes structural improvements to how the model treats biomass accumulation and decay, enhancements to fire-spread visualization, and the ability to run high-resolution simulations in high-performance computing environments. The USGS seeks to continue the development of this model to track land-based fuels and fire risk across the conterminous U.S. This contract supports the development of operational and scientific improvements to the model, focusing on its ability to project how natural and anthropogenic processes—including climate change, urbanization, and land management—alter the wildfire landscape. As specified in this contract, the Contractor will design and complete enhancements to the ST-Sim software as requested and approved by the USGS Point-of-Contact to support these wildfire and land-use objectives. Deliverables -- 1 of 4 -- Page 2 of 4 Anticipated deliverables are divided into two categories and will be specifically defined as individual tasks: A. General Technical Support Provide technical support to the USGS in the use, application, and customization of the SyncroSim/ST-Sim software module. This includes: • Assisting in the configuration and parameterization of fuel load variables and fire transition probabilities. • Calculating and processing external data (e.g., remote sensing vegetation data) to provide input model parameters. • Developing post-processing analytical tools to translate model outputs into fire-risk maps and hazard assessments. • Collaborating on scientific meetings, publications, and reports regarding LULC- driven fire dynamics. B. Software Enhancements Provide software enhancements to the SyncroSim/ST-Sim application to support ongoing program requirements. This includes: • Adding new features to simulate complex fire-regime interactions and fuel treatment eƯectiveness. • Modifying underlying code to improve the scaling of large-area wildfire simulations. • Updating documentation and training materials to reflect new wildfire-centric modeling capabilities. • Ensuring ongoing compatibility of the software with current USGS data standards and high-performance computing requirements. Performance Assessment Plan / Monitoring Methods Description / Desired Outcome Performance Standard Monitoring Method Timeliness – scheduled deliverables Deliverables submitted by dates specified in each Task Order. Review of deliverable submission dates against Task Order schedule at each progress meeting. Timeliness – technical support responses Written or verbal responses to USGS technical inquiries provided within 3 business days, Technical Liaison tracks response times on an ongoing basis; flagged if -- 2 of 4 -- Page 3 of 4 unless a longer timeline is mutually agreed. pattern of late responses emerges. Timeliness – at-risk milestones If a milestone is at risk, Contractor notifies USGS Technical Liaison and Contracting Officer in writing at least 10 business days in advance with explanation and revised schedule. Technical Liaison evaluates whether advance notice was provided and revised schedule is reasonable. Software delivery – repository-based (e.g., LUCAS, WISDM) Functional release or tagged commit delivered to designated public repository, with written Technical Liaison notification upon release. Technical Liaison confirms release availability in repository and reviews release notes. Software delivery – direct scripts and data Task-specific scripts and data files delivered in agreed formats, with documentation sufficient for a qualified USGS scientist to understand and run the materials. Technical Liaison reviews delivered files for completeness against Task Order SOW. Software delivery – SyncroSim platform updates Functional software release incorporating specified enhancements is made available, with written Technical Liaison notification and updated documentation. Technical Liaison installs release and confirms specified features are functional as described in Task Order SOW. Internal review prior to delivery Contractor confirms in writing that all deliverables have been internally reviewed prior to submission. Written confirmation reviewed by Technical Liaison as part of acceptance process. Quantitative performance targets (where applicable) Where Task Order specifies quantitative targets (e.g., model calibration thresholds, processing speed benchm…