Why some research isn’t published yet
Most organizations publish first and defend later. We do it the other way around.
The Mindy Institute publishes a finding only after the Observatory measures it rests on reach sufficient maturity. When we don’t have enough evidence to defend a claim, we say so — and we don’t publish it. That restraint is not a limitation of the work. It is the work.
To make that concrete, here is the full ladder — every measure we track, what tier it sits at, and the honest reason it’s there. Nothing is hidden; the not-yet-ready measures are listed right alongside the ready ones.
The maturity ladder
Enough validated data to publish now. A finding may cite this.
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OBS-001Small-business participation
The share of a buyer’s active solicitations that are set aside — in whole or in part — for small businesses.
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OBS-002Awarded set-aside mix
The distribution of a market’s awarded contracts across set-aside categories (full-and-open, small-business, 8(a), SDVOSB, WOSB, HUBZone, and others).
A real, grounded signal — but not yet validated broadly enough to rest a public claim on.
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OBS-004Attention concentration by agency
Which buying agencies draw the most contractor attention, measured by how many opportunity views and distinct viewers each agency’s listings attract.
Why not further along: Ranked from a bounded sample of recent events, so treat the ordering as directional, not an exact leaderboard.
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OBS-009Competition depth
How many offers a buyer’s awards actually attract — the average number of bidders per award, and the share of awards that drew only a single bid.
Why not further along: Computed from a recent SAMPLE of a buyer’s awards, not the buyer’s entire history — the reason this metric is Beta, not Production. A larger, validated sample and a stated confidence interval are required before it graduates.
The measure is defined and accruing data, but there isn’t yet enough to report responsibly.
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OBS-003Return behavior
How often contractors come back to the platform — the habit curve — measured as distinct active days per user and the share who return on two or more separate days.
Why not further along: “Active day” counts any tracked action, not a qualified session.
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OBS-005Discovery index (browse-without-pursue)
How much contractors browse opportunities relative to how much they pursue them — the share of engaged actions that are exploration rather than commitment.
Why not further along: Currently concentrated in a small number of users — directional support for the thesis, NOT a publishable rate.
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OBS-006Sharing / referral
How often contractors share opportunities with one another — the peer-to-peer spread that drives organic growth.
Why not further along: Small today; grows with the peer-sharing feature.
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OBS-007Average decision time
The typical number of days between a contractor first discovering an opportunity and deciding to pursue it.
Why not further along: CANNOT be backfilled — it only exists for pursuits saved after the discovery timestamp began recording (2026-08). Accrues forward from there.
Defined on the roadmap so our direction is transparent — but no data behind it yet.
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OBS-008Procurement Health Score
A single composite score for how competitive and healthy a market is — combining small-business participation, competition depth, and supplier-base breadth into one figure per market.
Why not further along: No composite computed yet — defined here so the roadmap and the eventual formula are transparent from day one. A composite is only as trustworthy as its least-mature component; its competition-depth input (OBS-009) is Beta and its supplier-base-breadth input is not yet defined.
What this means in practice
A worked example. Our forthcoming paper “The Competition Gap” rests, in part, on OBS-008 · Procurement Health Score, which is currently at the Research stage. Until that measure matures, the paper’s central claim can’t be fully defended — so it stays forthcoming, not published. When the measure graduates, the paper becomes publishable. Not before.
That is why our published shelf grows slowly. Each item on it can be defended to a procurement official, an academic, or a journalist, line by line.