Each concept below states a claim we believe is true and names the Observatory standard it depends on. When that standard reaches publication maturity, the concept graduates into a publication at The Mindy Institute. Until then, we keep it here — honestly labeled, not published as a finding.
The Institute publishes a conclusion only when the Observatory standards behind it are mature. Everything on this page is still waiting.
The federal government knows how to publish opportunities. What it has never solved is how to make sure the right suppliers discover them — especially small businesses that have never bid before.
The cost of that gap is now measurable. From 2010 to 2019 the number of small businesses selling common goods and services to the government fell 38%; new entrants fell 79% from 2005 to 2019. Dollars to small business went up over the same period — the money is simply concentrating among fewer firms.
OMB has already named a more diverse and resilient supplier base a priority. The Institute exists to turn that priority into method: research, measurement, and a way to actually close the discovery gap.
Each is a claim we believe the evidence will support — and the Observatory standard it’s waiting on. When the standard matures, the concept graduates into a publication at The Mindy Institute.
Why public agencies struggle to reach qualified small businesses — and what the shrinking supplier base is costing procurement outcomes.
Bid notices are public by law, but the path to them runs through paid intermediaries — what the access layer charges, and what it costs the city that published the notice.
Federal = one front door; state and local = 90,887 fragmented purchasing entities with no equivalent — what that fragmentation costs the governments doing the buying.
The top reason firms don't bid is that they never knew the opportunity existed (Raleigh: 52% of white male-owned firms cited it) — what a thin bidder pool costs on every award.
DOT-funded research: bidder outreach is correlated with 17.6% lower project costs, and 70% of states rarely do it — the gap between what the research found and what states do.
The full body of verified research behind our work — every source linked to the original document, organized by claim, each marked confirmed or lead. The data, ready when you ask.
Moving the metric from "did we publish it" to "did qualified suppliers actually find and respond to it."
Why first-time small-business bidders have declined so steeply, and what actually brings them into a competition.
What a narrowing supplier base does to price, delivery risk, and the government's ability to weather disruption.
How AI-driven supplier discovery fits inside real procurement practice — without changing the rules an office has to follow.
These concepts are still waiting on their evidence. The published, Observatory-grounded work — and the standard behind each claim — lives at The Mindy Institute.